Exploring the linkages between populist leadership and greenhouse gas emissions
On 13 June, Mohammad Salimifar presented at the 7th International Conference on European Economics and Politics in Milan. This research was done by Mohammad, Jennifer Curtin, and Natalie Street, prompted by Natalie’s MPP dissertation. They have developed into a journal article (still forthcoming).
This cross-country empirical study examines the relationship between populism and climate change across 64 countries over nearly two decades (2000-2018). It provides a statistical analysis of mechanisms that have only been theorised in the literature, linking populism to adverse environmental outcomes. Employing a mediation model, the study tests the structural-ideological framework for populism, focusing on six potential mediating factors: democracy, rule of law, political corruption, government effectiveness, climate change mitigation policies, and environmental policy stringency. Using fixed-effect panel regressions, the findings reveal that populist leadership is associated with higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, weakened democracy and rule of law, increased corruption, and fewer environmental policies. The analysis also finds evidence of a mediating effect. It shows that populism impacts emissions levels primarily through the weakening of the rule of law and rising corruption, highlighting the importance of safeguarding democratic institutions to mitigate the threat populism poses to the climate change agenda.”
